晚稻稻瘿蚊主害代发生程度的预测模型  

Forecast model of Orseolia oryzae mayjor pestilent generation occurring on late maturing rice varieties

作　　者：陈观浩 张耀忠 杨果丰 

机构地区：[1]广东省化州市病虫测报站,广东化州525100 [2]广东省化州市中垌农技站,广东化州525144 [3]广东省化州市官桥农技站,广东化州525145

出　　处：《华东昆虫学报》2006年第2期137-139,共3页Entomological Journal of East China

基　　金：茂名市科技计划资助项目(200402046)

摘　　要：通过对化州市稻瘿蚊16 a历史资料的研究分析,明确了决定稻瘿蚊发生程度的关键因素是降水量和平均气温。由此以“九.五”研究的有关结论为基础,建立了稻瘿蚊发生程度预测模型:Y=23.4000+0.0054x1-0.7972x2,回报历史拟合率为91.9%,对1999-2005年7 a预测准确率达87.1%。Based on the data collected during the year from 1983 to 1999, the precipitation and average temperature were found to be the 2 key factors affecting Orseolia oryzae occurrence on late maturing rice varieties. The forecast model may be expressed as Y = 23.4000 ＋ 0. 0054x1 -0. 7972x2. The qualified rates of fitting and prediction using this model amount to 91.9% and 87.1% , respectively.

关 键 词：晚稻 稻瘿蚊 预测模型 

分 类 号：S435.112[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]