基于时间的VMI整合补货模式的系统成本与牛鞭效应  

Bullwhip Effect and System Cost in Time-based VMI Consolidation Replenishment System

作　　者：张力菠[1] 陈杰[2] 马义中[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,江苏南京210016 [2]南京理工大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210094

出　　处：《系统工程》2006年第10期26-33,共8页Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70372010)

摘　　要：为了研究基于时间的VM I整合补货模式下补货周期对两级供应链系统中系统成本和牛鞭效应的影响以及系统成本与牛鞭效应的关系,利用系统动力学的方法和工具构建该模式的动态仿真模型。通过实例仿真,定量研究基于时间的VM I整合补货模式中供应商对随机流需求输入的订单响应率波动及系统成本的变化,并通过二次函数的回归分析探讨系统成本与牛鞭效应之间的数学关系。结果显示,随着补货周期的延长,牛鞭效应呈现严格单调递增的变化,系统成本表现出先降后升的变化趋势,系统成本与牛鞭效应之间则是一种二次凹函数的关系,那么可以找到一个合适的补货周期,实现供应链牛鞭效应与系统成本的协调优化控制。Based on the analysis of the process and the mechanism of a time-based consolidation replenishment policy for VMI （TCR-VMI）, the causal loop diagram and the system dynamics model of a two-level supply chain with TCR-VMI are developed in order to discuss the effect of a replenishment cycle on the ＂ullwhip Effect＂ and the system cost. Then the system cost and the dynamic responses of order in a TCR-VMI supply chain are quantitatively studied and proposed through the practical dynamic simulations under a random demand. Finally the relationship between the system cost and the ＂Bullwhip Effect＂ is quantitatively studied and proposed through the regression of quadratic function. The results show that the ＂Bullwhip Effect＂ in a TCR-VMI system is becoming more and more evident as the replenishment cycle is getting longer. However, it is yet found that the relationship between the system cost and the ＂Bullwhip Effect＂ is a kind of concave function in a TCR-VMI system, which makes it possible to find an optimum replenishment cycle that enables the collaborative control between system cost and ＂Bullwhip Effect＂ in supply chain.

关 键 词：供应链 牛鞭效应 供应商管理库存 整合补货 系统动力学 

分 类 号：F253[经济管理—国民经济]