济宁市耕地资源预警研究  

Research in the cultivated land resource forewarning of Jining City

作　　者：刘坤[1] 

机构地区：[1]曲阜师范大学资源与规划学院,山东曲阜273165

出　　处：《国土与自然资源研究》2006年第4期40-41,共2页Territory & Natural Resources Study

基　　金：曲阜师范大学2004年青年基金项目(自然科学XJ0512)

摘　　要：根据区域实际情况构建了区域耕地供需平衡系统;依据济宁市多年土地调查资料和统计数据,预测了耕地需求总量和耕地的供给量;以耕地的供需比作为预警指标,设立预警警限警度,并据此对济宁市2010年和2020年耕地进行了预警分析;结果表明,济宁市耕地资源2010和2020年无警。On the basis of regional actual situation the author first built the balance system in supply and demand of regional cultivated land, and forecast cultivated land demand and supply overall in terms of many years survey data and statistical data.Taking the ratio of supply and demand levels of cultivated land as forewarning indicators, the author cstablishcd the forewarning limit and the forewarning degree, and aecontingly analyses the forewarning of Jining City cultivated land supply and demand in 2010 and 2020. The results showed that the ratio of supply and demand levels declined slowly, but in 2010 and in 2020 there are all non-warning. Finally the author put forward the response to remove the potential warning.

关 键 词：耕地资源 供需平衡系统 预警指标 济宁市 

分 类 号：F323.211[经济管理—产业经济]