武器系统仿真模型的可信性验证方法研究  

On Method of Credibility Estimation of Weapon System Simulation Model

作　　者：李庆民[1] 刘君[1] 张志华[1] 

机构地区：[1]海军工程大学兵器工程系,湖北武汉430033

出　　处：《系统仿真学报》2006年第12期3380-3382,3386,共4页Journal of System Simulation

摘　　要：武器系统仿真模型的可信性验证是合理地、科学地运用武器系统仿真模型进行系统分析、预测以及辅助决策的关键环节。通过对典型水中兵器仿真模型进行可信性验证,给出了系统仿真模型的可信度在典型水中兵器仿真模型中的具体形式,建立了仿真模型的可信度分域模型。然后利用经典统计分析方法给出了该典型水中兵器仿真模型可信度的点估计及其置信下限,并通过实际试验及仿真模型数据实现了该可信性验证方法,证明了该方法的可行性。Credibility estimation of weapon system simulation model is the key procedure of system analysis, forecast and aided decision reasonably and scientifically by using weapon system simulation model. The confidence of typical underwater weapon system simulation model was embodied, and partition model of its confidence was set up. Then the estimation and confidence inferior limit were worked out by classical statistical approach. At last, based on the outputs of system and its simulation model, credibility estimation of weapon system simulation model was realized, which proved the method was feasible.

关 键 词：水中兵器 仿真模型 可信性 可信度 点估计 置信下限 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]