中国城镇居民消费函数分析——基于1978～2004年的数据  

Analysis of Chinese Urban Residents' Consumption Function——Based on the Data from 1978 to 2004

作　　者：曾令华[1] 赵晓英[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学金融学院,湖南长沙410079

出　　处：《山西财经大学学报》2006年第6期46-54,共9页Journal of Shanxi University of Finance and Economics

摘　　要：根据消费函数理论的发展，运用中国1978～2004年的数据构造了城镇居民的消费函数，研究了消费与其影响因素之间的长期均衡和短期动态关系。结论表明：可支配收入依然是解释我国城镇居民消费的主要变量，影响我国居民消费的收入主要是持久性收入；不确定性对居民消费影响很大，起主要作用的是劳动收入的不确定性；利率对居民消费的影响很小．而且在统计上不显著。Base on the development of consumption theory, the consumers＇ data of 1978 - 2004 in China are used in this paper to research the dynamic relation between consumers＇ choice and faetors that could influence the consumption choice. The results of the model shows that disposable income is the dominant factor that explains the consumption pattern of urban residents and the permanent income is the dominant explanation for the national residents＇ choice. The uncertainty, especially the uncertainty on labor income, also has large influence on the decision. Other factors, for example, interest rate is not statistically significant.

关 键 词：消费函数 长期均衡关系 短期动态关系 

分 类 号：F126.1[经济管理—世界经济]