基于GMDH的民航客运量需求预测与分析  

Demand Forecasting and Analyzing of Civil Aviation Passenger Transport Markets based on GMDH

作　　者：邓洁君[1] 罗利[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学工商管理学院,成都610064

出　　处：《软科学》2006年第6期35-38,共4页Soft Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70440007)

摘　　要：根据社会经济发展和民航客运需求之间的关系,探讨了影响民航客运量的因素,并以成都民航客运市场为研究对象,采用多元线性回归和GMDH的方法,分别建立了两个民航客运需求预测模型对成都民航客运的需求量进行了预测,同时还实施了两种方法的组合预测,通过预测误差分析结果证明预测的可信性。研究表明,GMDH模型具有较强的预测推广能力和进行因素分析的优越性。In this paper, the authors explore the relation of the development of society economy and de- mand of civil aviation passenger transport, and choose the market of civil aviation passenger transport in Chengdu as the research object. They respectively set two models to forecast the demand of Chengdu＇s civil aviation passenger transport by multiple linear regression and advanced data mining technology based on the method of GMDH （ Group Method of Data Handling） , at the same time they also use combination forecast of the two methods. The results prove that and the superiority in factor analysis. these GMDH models have powerful forecasting ability and the superiority in factor analysis.

关 键 词：民航容运量 需求预测 多元线性回归 GMDH 

分 类 号：F562[经济管理—产业经济]