港口吞吐量的内在影响因素提取  

Distilling Inner Influencing Factors on Port Throughput

作　　者：张萍[1] 严以新[1] 许长新[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《中国港湾建设》2006年第6期70-72,共3页China Harbour Engineering

基　　金：江苏省"港口;海岸及近海工程"省级重点学科建设项目(BR030811)

摘　　要：港口吞吐量的预测对于港口的建设和规划有着极其重要的意义。而影响港口吞吐量的因素很多,文章从可能影响港口吞吐量的若干因素出发,采用主成分分析法提取了最关键的因素,剖析了港口吞吐量的内在影响机理,并提出了基于影响机理的预测模型。最后,以南京港为例,对模型进行验证,结果证明该模型能较好地反映实际系统模型,对系统的拟合是有效的。Forecast of port throughput is very important for port construction and layout. This paper analyzed many factors which possibly influence port cargo throughput and pick up the most important factors by principal component analysis. After that, this paper anatomized inherent mechanism of impacts of port throughput, and put forward a forecast model based on the above mechanisms. Finally, the model was verified by a test of the throughput of Nanjing Port. The model test results showed that the model can well reflect the actual systematic model and is effective for fitting or the system.

关 键 词：主成分分析 港口吞吐量 预测 

分 类 号：U652.14[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]