气候统计诊断与预测方法研究进展——纪念中国气象科学研究院成立50周年  

Progresses on Climatological Statistical Diagnosis and Prediction Methods——In Commemoration of the 50 Anniversaries of CAMS Establishment

作　　者：魏凤英[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《应用气象学报》2006年第6期736-742,共7页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

摘　　要：概述了近50年来中国气象科学研究院在气候统计诊断与预测方法方面的研究进展。20世纪60年代,我国气候学者引入统计学方法,结合我国的气候特点,开展了气候统计分析与预测的研究;70年代至80年代期间,中国气象科学研究院首先将模糊集理论和灰色系统推向大气科学的各个领域,并在应用推广工作中做出了积极的努力;进入20世纪90年代,利用气候统计诊断与预测新方法对气候系统进行更深入地研究,得到许多新的观测事实,不仅涉及气候趋势与突变诊断、年代际振荡,多尺度变率相互作用,还涉及气候异常成因的研究。同时,提出和发展了一系列统计预测的新方法,并已在气候业务预测和气象决策服务中发挥了作用。An overview of the progress in Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences（CAMS）has been made on the method of climatological statistical diagnosis and prediction in recent 50 years. The study on climatological statistical diagnosis and prediction fails into such several phases as the introduction, the application, the outspreading and the innovation. In 1960s, statistics methods and application into studies on climatological statistical analysis and prediction, incorporating the climatic characters in China are introduce by the climatologists. In this period the introduction, application and outspreading of the statistics are explored and great effective studies are made on by researchers in CAMS. During 1970s and 1980s, great effort has been made and fuzzy set theory and gray system to every branch of atmosphere science. In 1990s, studies on climatological statistical diagnosis and prediction are very active. Employing new methods and new technology widens the field of vision on understanding and forecasting the climate system; and many observation facts are obtained. During this period, the relative studies in CAMS are plentiful, not only the climatic trend, diagnosis of climate abrupt, interdecadal oscillation and interaction of different scales variability, but also the causes of climate anomaly. In order to improve the level of short-term climate forecast further, a series of new methods of statistical forecast are proposed and developed which play important roles in climate operational prediction and weather decision-making.

关 键 词：气候统计诊断 气候预测 气候异常 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]