水文时间序列的系统自记忆模式研究  

The study on system self-memory model of hydrologic time series

作　　者：张双虎[1] 黄强[1] 孙廷容[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学水利水电学院,陕西西安710048

出　　处：《西北农林科技大学学报（自然科学版）》2006年第12期221-225,共5页Journal of Northwest A&F University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家科学自然基金项目(50479024)

摘　　要：将“系统自记忆模式”引入到水文时间序列预测中。推导了描述水文系统动力特性的微分方程，建立了水文时间序列预测的系统自记忆预测模型。并以黄河上游贵德水文站1919～1997年径流资料对该模型进行了验证。结果表明，该模型具有预测精度高。稳定性好，观测误差对预测值影响小的优点。In this paper, the system self-memory model is introduced in the prediction of hydrologic time series ,the differential equation describing dynamic characteristic of hydrologic system is deduced ,and the prediction model of system self-memory of hydrologic time series is established. Also,with Guide hydrological station on the upstream of Yellow River as the study subject,the annual runoff materials from 1919 to 1997 are used to test the model. Research result indicates the model has the merits of high accura cy,good stability and low effect of observing error on prediction data.

关 键 词：系统自记忆 时间序列 年径流量预测 

分 类 号：P333.6[天文地球—水文科学]