水电厂竞价电量的风险分析模型及应用  

Risk Analysis Model of Bidding Energy for Hydropower Plants and Its Application

作　　者：张验科[1] 王丽萍[1] 李安强[2] 李崇浩[3] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学水力发电工程系,北京市102206 [2]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北省武汉市430072 [3]中国南方电网公司,广东省广州市510623

出　　处：《水电自动化与大坝监测》2006年第6期27-30,共4页HYDROPOWER AUTOMATION AND DAM MONITORING

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(50579019)

摘　　要：由来水不确定性带来的申报电量风险和对边际电价预测不准确引起的申报电价风险,是水电厂参与电力市场竞价的主要风险。水电厂水库的水文预报模型和系统不仅包含了丰富的水库来水规律特性信息,也包含了预报系统的大量特征信息。文中建立的基于径流预报特性的蒙特卡罗风险分析模型,在统计实验方法中充分吸纳了水文预报系统的相关信息,为定量分析计算水电厂申报电量的风险提供了一种有效、可行的途径和方法。The main risk for hydropower plants at the in electricity market is the bidding energy risk induced by the uncertainty of inflow and marginal electricity price forecast. The hydrological forecasting model of a reservoir and its system contain abundant characteristic information of inflow law of the reservoir and the forecasting system. A Monte-Carlo risk analysis model is built based on runoff forecasting. It adequately absorbs interrelated information of hydrological prediction system, and provides an efficient and feasible way for quantitative analysis and calculation involved in the risk involved in bidding energy.

关 键 词：水电厂 水电竞价 竞价电量 风险分析 蒙特卡罗模型 

分 类 号：TV737[水利工程—水利水电工程] TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]