重大事故动力学演化  

Dynamic evolution of major accidents—concepts and rudiments

作　　者：刘铁民[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国安全生产科学研究院,北京100029

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2006年第6期3-6,共4页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:70473018);国家"十五"科技攻关课题(编号:2004BA803B05)资助

摘　　要：为进一步研究重大事故发生演化机理,在对典型重特大事故比较研究的基础上,应用系统动力学理论分析重大事故孕育、发生、发展和激变的动力学特征,认识重大事故行为过程及其主要影响因素,探讨重大事故闭环反馈系统的调控规律。作者建议应用系统动力学理论与方法建立决策实验室,以提高对重大事故风险控制水平。To carry further research on the generative and evolutionary machine of major accidents, on the base of comparative studies of typical major, special major accidents, the paper applied the theory of system dynamics to analyze the dynamic characteristics of inoculation, generation, development and qualitative change of major accidents, to explore the behavioral process and main influence factors of major accidents and to probe into governing rules of closed loop feedback system of major accidents. The author proposed to apply the theory and methodology of system dynamics on establishig a decision - making laboratory to elevate the risk control ability of major accidents.

关 键 词：重大事故 系统动力学 动力学演化 

分 类 号：X92[环境科学与工程—安全科学]