城市燃气管线的定量风险分析  

Quantitative Risk Analysis for Urban Pipeline Carrying Natural Gas

作　　者：刘斐[1] 刘茂[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学城市公共安全研究中心,天津300071

出　　处：《南开大学学报（自然科学版）》2006年第6期31-36,共6页Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Nankaiensis

基　　金："十五"国家科技攻关计划滚动课题(2004BA803B05-03)

摘　　要：城市燃气管线是城市的重大危险源,事故后果多为燃气泄漏后发生的火灾、爆炸,造成人员及建筑物的损伤,其定量风险分析对于燃气管线的风险管理非常重要.本文对管线发生泄漏的事故概率及其后果进行分析,在此基础上进行个人风险和社会风险的定量分析,并基于个人风险的可接受水平制定管线的安全距离,为管线的风险管理及规划提供依据.Urban pipeline carrying natural gas is one of ＇the important hazardous sources, the consequence is usually the fire and explosion due to leakage of natural gas so as to bring hazard to the vicinity. The quantitative risk analysis is very important to its risk management and is being considered to apply it to improve the safety level of urban pipelines carrying natural gas. This paper focuses on the pipeline failure probability and its consequence due to the characteristic of pipeline and natural gas and estimates the individual risk and social risk. Individual risk can be got from the pipeline failure probability which is calculated by historical data and the death probability at a specified location, Social risk can be got from the pipeline failure probability and the fatalities caused by the accident within three zones of 100 %-99 %, 99 % -50 % and 50 %-1% lethality. The pipeline safety distance is designed based on the acceptable criteria of individual risk to support the risk management and planning of pipeline.

关 键 词：燃气管线 失效 风险分析 个人风险 社会风险 安全距离 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]