腐蚀管道的失效概率和剩余寿命预测方法  

Reliability Method for the Assessment of the Failure Probability and Remaining Life of the Corroded Pipeline

作　　者：赵事[1] 蒋晓斌[1] 高惠临[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安石油大学

出　　处：《油气储运》2006年第12期28-31,共4页Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(50374056)资助项目。

摘　　要：以腐蚀管道失效压力和腐蚀速率分析为基础,建立了腐蚀管道可靠性极限状态函数和管道剩余寿命预测模型。采用改进的一次二阶矩法对腐蚀管道的可靠性指标和失效概率进行了分析和计算。结合工程实例,求解了某含腐蚀缺陷天然气管道不同服役年限的可靠性指标和失效概率,预测了该腐蚀管道的剩余寿命,计算和分析了工作压力、腐蚀速率、腐蚀深度和长度等参数对腐蚀管道可靠性的影响。A limit state function of the corroded pipeline is presented on the basis of analysis of failure pressure and corrosion rate of corroded pipeline. The advanced first order and second moment iterative method are employed for calculation on reliability index and failure probability. As an engineering example,reliability index and failure probability are calculated and remaining life is predicted for a corroded pipeline. The effects of applied pressure, corrosion rate, defect depth and defect length on the reliability of corroded pipeline are evaluated.

关 键 词：管道 腐蚀缺陷 可靠性 失效概率 剩余寿命 预测 方法 

分 类 号：TU311.2[建筑科学—结构工程]