石油勘探项目放弃期权计算模型研究  

Abandonment option model for petroleum exploration and development projects

作　　者：张永峰[1] 贾承造[1] 杨树锋[2] 陈汉林[2] 胡素云[1] 刘吉夷[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油勘探开发研究院,北京100083 [2]浙江大学理学院地球科学系,浙江杭州310027

出　　处：《中国石油大学学报（自然科学版）》2006年第6期137-140,共4页Journal of China University of Petroleum(Edition of Natural Science)

基　　金：中国石油天然气股份有限公司资助项目(107401-C00110);教育部高等学校优秀青年教师教学和科研奖励计划

摘　　要：石油勘探项目在进行过程中受市场、地质、经济、政策和技术等多种不确定性因素共同影响,包含了多种类型的期权,放弃期权是一种重要类型。针对石油勘探项目进行过程中存在的灵活性,详细分析了放弃期权的意义及其价值构成,并且提出了基于二叉树模型的石油勘探项目多阶段放弃期权实用计算模型。通过实例分析计算,得出了综合考虑石油勘探项目盈亏平衡状况的放弃期权价值,验证了石油勘探项目中多阶段放弃期权计算模型的适用性,从而为决策者提供了更科学的战略决策支持。Since a variety of uncertainties such as market, geological, economic, political and technical factors exist in petroleum exploration projects, many types of potential options lie in the projects. And abandonment option is of great importance for the projects. Considering the flexibility of such projects, the significance and value structure of abandonment option were analyzed in detail, A multi-stage binomial model for abandonment option was put forward. As shown in the instance, the abandonment option model was demonstrated with a full consideration of the financial balance, and the applicability of this model was discussed. The result is useful for the decision-makers.

关 键 词：石油勘探项目 经济评价 放弃期权 计算模型 战略决策 

分 类 号：TE19[石油与天然气工程—油气勘探]