交通事故规律及其模型  

Laws and models of traffic accidents

作　　者：周钱[1] 陆化普[1] 徐薇[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学交通研究所,北京100084

出　　处：《交通运输工程学报》2006年第4期112-115,共4页Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering

基　　金："十五"国家科技攻关重大项目(2002BA404A20B)

摘　　要：分析了数10个国家的社会经济、交通事故情况及发展规律,利用新近的多年数据对国外学者提出的交通安全发展模型进行了验证,并进一步分析了模型在不同机动化水平下的适用性。研究发现在机动化水平的初级阶段,世界各国相应的机动化水平能够解释相应的交通事故水平,而在机动化水平高度成熟的状况下,上述模型就不再适用。在此基础上,将中国交通事故的发展特性与国际规律进行比较,发现在同等的机动化水平下,中国的交通事故水平要好于国际一般水平。提出了适合中国机动化水平与交通事故水平的关系模型,确定了中国交通事故水平处于快速恶化的阶段,交通事故死亡人数还会持续增加。The characteristics of social economies and traffic accidents in tens of countries were studied, the traffic safety development model proposed by foreign researchers was verified with recent accident data, the applicability of the model under different motorization levels was analyzed, the development characteristics of Chinese traffic accidents were studied, the traffic accident model adapting Chinese traffic safety and motorization pattern was put forward. Analysis result indicates that the levels of traffic accidents can be explained by preliminary motorization levels in different countries, but can not be deduced by mature motorization levels, Chinese level of traffic accidents is better than most of other countries at the same level of motorization. The development stage of Chinese traffic accidents is presented, in which the level rapilly worsens, and the traffic death toll continually increases. 4 figs, 12 refs.

关 键 词：交通安全 交通事故 事故规律 机动化水平 

分 类 号：U491.31[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]