从2005年台风数值预报误差探讨决策预报中的几个问题  

Approach to Some Problems about Decision-making Forecasting from Investigation of 2005 Typhoon Numerical Prediction Errors

作　　者：庄千宝 叶子祥 周功铤 马永安 

机构地区：[1]浙江省乐清市气象局,325600 [2]浙江省温州气象局

出　　处：《气象》2006年第12期16-22,共7页Meteorological Monthly

摘　　要：通过2005年5个台风9种数值模式在各时段的登陆点预报误差统计分析,结合各次台风过程天气形势的分析,探讨数值预报模式对台风路径的预报能力,并对台风决策预报服务中的几个问题提出探讨意见。统计分析结果表明,数值模式对台风路径的72～96小时预报的平均误差较大,当天气形势出现较大的变化和调整时,预报有可能出现一致性的误差。The errors in landing location forecasting of 5 typhoons in 2005 with 9 numerical models were statistically analyzed, and the synoptic situations of each typhoon were also investigated. Then, the ability of typhoon track prediction and the valid time satisfying strategic decision service were discussed, and some preliminary suggestions on decision-making forecasting of typhoon predication were proposed. The statistical analysis results show that the average 72-96h prediction error of typhoon track by the numerical models is larger, and the identical errors could happen when the synoptic situations had great change and adjustment.

关 键 词：台风路径 数值预报 评估 决策 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]