地气图方法预报汛期降水10年总结  

Summary of Precipitation Prediction during Flood Season Based on “Geothermal Gases” Map over the Last 10 Years

作　　者：汤懋苍[1] 郭维栋[2] 柳艳香[3] 张拥军[1] 李栋梁[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,兰州730000 [2]中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京100029 [3]中国气象局国家气候中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气候与环境研究》2006年第5期642-648,共7页Climatic and Environmental Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目40405014;科技部社会公益研究专项2004DIB5J192的01课题02专题

摘　　要：作者总结了用地气图方法进行1995～2004年汛期降水预报的经验教训。10年来各单位的平均得分均为60多分,表明气候预测尚未过关。地气图方法虽然取得了在8大单位中平均排名第一的成绩,但比第二名只多0.4分。表明地气图方法还有很长的路要走。不过它所走的大方向:要考虑岩石圈热力异常对短期气候变化的影响,似乎值得肯定。因为岩石圈与大气圈的耦合作用是气候系统中的一对主要矛盾,而且岩石圈释放的热量有时可达100～101W.m-2的量级,这足以影响到短期气候变化。10年中1995年和2002年本方法预报得分排名为倒数第一,因而对此进行了深入分析。最值得吸取教训的是2002年和2003年。Precipitation prediction during flood season based summarized in this paper. The average score of prediction for on ＂Geothermal gases＂ map over the last 10 years is all participants is just higher than 60, which implies that the skill of short-term climate change prediction is still not enough for operational use. ＂Geothermal gases＂ Map method ranks at the top of the participants with limited advantages by 0. 4, indicating that there is much room to further improve this method. At the same time, it is worthwhile to attach more importance to this method because it focuses on the interaction between lithosphere and atmosphere, which is probably the main process of the climate system. The heat flux released from lithosphere could reach as high as 10°-101 W · m^-2 according to some investi gations, which is large enough to cause the effects on short-term climate chahge. Cases in year 1995 and 2002 are analyzed in detail since the performances of this method are poor. In addition, some lessons are mentioned in particular concerning the predictions in year 2002 and 2003.

关 键 词：地气图方法 地气热通量 汛期降水预报 

分 类 号：P445[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]