基于模糊统计的山区公路安全评价研究  

Safety Evaluation of Highway in Mountainous Area Based on Fuzzy Statistics

作　　者：许洪国[1] 刘兆惠[1] 王超[1] 王文霞[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学交通学院

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2006年第10期116-119,共4页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：吉林省交通厅科技发展计划项目(3L1057832417)。

摘　　要：应用模糊统计中的集值统计方法对山区公路进行交通安全评价研究,以克服应用等级比重法和专家评分法对模糊和非定量化指标评价中评价精度不高的问题。首先建立评价指标体系并进行权重分配,采用集值统计法确定评价值,最终得出道路安全评价结果,确定影响交通安全的主要因素。通过算例说明了模糊统计法能有效解决山区公路安全性评价问题。Set-Valued Statistics method belonged to fuzzy statistics was presented to evaluate the traffic safety of highways in mountainous area. Methods above-mentioned could effectively overcome shortcomings of the gravitation method and the expert judgment method that might result in low evaluation precisions for fuzzy and qualitative indices influenced on road safety in mountainous area. Firstly, evaluation indices system was established and weight was distributed to each influence factor, and then, Set-Valued Statistics was adopted to determine evaluation value, finally, safety evaluation results of the highways were elicited and main influence factors on traffic safety were confirmed. An application of the method provided here demonstrates that it can effectively solve the problem for traffic safety evaluation of the highways in mountainous area.

关 键 词：交通安全 模糊统计 山区公路 评价 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]