本币升值影响股票市场的理论与实证研究  

A Positivist Analysis of the Impact of Currency Appreciation on the Stock Market

作　　者：袁冬梅[1] 刘建江[2] 

机构地区：[1]湖南师范大学商学院,湖南长沙410081 [2]华中科技大学经济学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《长沙理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2006年第4期62-66,共5页Journal of Changsha University of Science and Technology：Social Science

基　　金：教育部人文社科项目"美国股票市场财富效应与经济波动的相关性研究"(01JA790076);湖南省社科基金项目"房地产市场价格波动影响消费的机理及实证研究"(05YB83)

摘　　要：一国货币升值对该国股票市场会产生影响,文章运用日本数据资料实证分析日元升值与日经股票指数的相关性,结果也表明,短期内本币升值会导致股票市场的快速膨胀,但从长期来看,升值预期一旦消失,股市将会大幅度下挫,并对宏观经济不利。计量分析也支持汇率变动对股市的单向影响。因此,我们在正视人民币升值的事实时须重视其对我国股市可能产生的各种影响。This paper analyses the mechanism of the impact on stock market of the currency appreciation, and demonstrates the relationship of the appreciation of Japanese yen and Nikkei Stock Price Average. It shows that the appreciation of Japanese yen has caused the rising of Nikkei Stock Price Average in a short run. However, the depression of stock market and the economy occurs with the disappearance of the appreciation expectations of the currency in a long tenn. Econometric analysis also argues for the impact on Nikkei Stock Price Average of the appreciation of Japanese yen. Therefore, we should envisage the appreciation of RMB and its influence on China＇ s stock market.

关 键 词：本币对外升值 股票市场 日本股市 

分 类 号：F820[经济管理—财政学]