宁波市耕地动态及其驱动力的初步研究  

Preliminary Study on Dynamic Changes and Driving Forces for Cultivated Land in Ningbo City

作　　者：童亿勤[1] 

机构地区：[1]宁波大学建筑工程与环境学院,浙江宁波315211

出　　处：《宁波大学学报（理工版）》2006年第4期549-554,共6页Journal of Ningbo University：Natural Science and Engineering Edition

基　　金：浙江省哲学社会科学规划课题(NM05YJ03);浙江省教育厅科研基金(20040911)

摘　　要：利用宁波市55年长序列耕地统计数据,20余年相关社会经济资料,从宁波市耕地的数量变化、利用程度的变化和变化的区域差异等方面,分析了宁波市耕地动态变化的趋势和规律.应用主成分分析,定量地诊断出耕地变化的驱动因子,揭示耕地变化的驱动机制.结果表明:耕地数量总体呈不断减少趋势,人口压力、经济发展动态是影响宁波市耕地动态变化的主要动因.在此基础上,运用多元回归分析建立耕地变化回归模型.该成果将为宁波市合理地利用和保护耕地提供理论指导。According to the statistical survey at county level, discussed in this work are the trend of cultivated land change, the geographical differences, and the driving forces for cultivated land change in Ningbo City over the last 55 years. The total area of arable land and land availability per capital are found to be decreasing. The shrinking tendency will continue as the economy grows and population increases. The seven driving-force factors concerning arable land changes are analyzed, which may be classified into two types： the pressure of population system, and the economy growth. The study results in this paper is hoped to provide certain scientific insights for sustainable agriculture development in Ningbo City.

关 键 词：耕地动态 驱动力 主成分分析 回归分析 宁波市 

分 类 号：K902[历史地理—人文地理学]