甘肃省近百年来人口分布的时空变化分析  

Time and Spatial Analysis on the Distribution of Population in Gansu Province over 100 Years

作　　者：牛叔文[1] 郭晓东[1] 刘正广[1] 李国柱[1] 曾明明[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学资源环境学院

出　　处：《中国人口科学》2006年第6期49-57,共9页Chinese Journal of Population Science

摘　　要：文章依据近百年来分区域人口统计数据建立动态模型,分析甘肃省人口分布的时空变化特点。近百年来甘肃经济社会状况的巨变引起75个县的人口密度和人口比重的变化,特别是以兰州市为重心的陇中地区人口比重持续上升,反映了工业化、城镇化过程对人口分布的集中效应;而陇南地区在人口密度快速增加的同时人口比重持续下降,反映了资源环境对人口增长的约束。各地区的人口密度、人口比重与时间序列具有良好的相关性。This paper establishes a dynamic model by using sub-regional demographic data in the past century to analyze the time and spatial changes of population distribution in Gansu Province.The huge changes of Gansu’s socio-economic conditions over 100 years has led to the changes in population densities and relative imortances in its 75 counties.The continues increase in population share of the central Gansu reflects the agglomeration effects of industrialization and urbanization,while the declining population share of southern Gansu reflects the constraints of resources and environment on population growth.The correlations between population density and time sequence and between population share and time sequence are significant in all areas.

关 键 词：人口分布 时空变化 人口密度 动态模型 甘肃省 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学] K294[历史地理—历史学]