基于马尔柯夫模型的内蒙古锡林浩特典型草原退化格局预测  

Prediction of grassland degradation in Xilinhaote of Inner Mongolia based on Markov process model

作　　者：李素英[1] 李晓兵[1] 王丹丹[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学资源学院环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京100875

出　　处：《生态学杂志》2007年第1期78-82,共5页Chinese Journal of Ecology

基　　金：教育部新世纪人才基金项目(NCET-04-0149);国家自然科学基金资助项目(30670398)

摘　　要：以锡林浩特典型草原的TM影像为基础,结合野外路线考察,建立退化草地的分类体系,将草地分为轻度退化(含无明显退化)、中度退化和重度退化3个等级。利用马尔柯夫模型,步长为1年,预测2002—2011年的锡林浩特地区的3类退化草地面积变化。结果表明,整个预测期的退化草地面积变化明显,轻度退化、中度退化草地面积减少,而严重退化草地面积增加明显。到2011年,锡林浩特严重退化的草地比例增加到68·61%,而其轻度退化草地、中度退化草地、重度退化草原的面积比例为2∶2·6∶10,说明该地区草地退化趋势严重,有必要采取措施减轻草地退化。Based on the TM images of typical grassland in Xilinhaote and the field investigations there, a classification system for the degraded grassland was established, and the yearly degrada- tion of the grassland from 2002 to 2011 was predicted by using Markov process model. The prediction indicated that the areas of light and moderately degraded grasslands would be decreased, while that of heavily degraded grassland would be increased. By the end of 2011, the area of heavily degraded grassland would be 68. 61% of the total, and the proportion of light, moderately and heavily degraded grasslands would be 2： 2. 6： 10, suggesting that the grassland degradation in Xilinhote would be quite serious, and countermeasures should be taken to lighten the degradation.

关 键 词：草原退化 马尔柯夫模型 典型草原 锡林浩特 

分 类 号：S812[农业科学—草业科学]