北京城区8月日花粉总数量和致敏花粉数量短期预报  

Daily Total Pollen and Allergic Pollen Forecasting in August in Beijing

作　　者：张姝丽 张德山 何海娟[2] 穆启占 

机构地区：[1]北京市专业气象台,北京100089 [2]北京协和医院变态反应科,北京100730

出　　处：《气象科技》2006年第6期724-727,共4页Meteorological Science and Technology

摘　　要：对北京城区1983～1986年和1998～2003年8月逐日花粉总数量和致敏花粉数量的分析发现，北京夏秋季花粉日数量在“立秋”节气的前、中期呈缓慢增加趋势；在“立秋”节气的后期迅速增加；当进入“处暑”节气，日花粉总数量增长到峰值，并居峰值左右摆动。利用统计方法建立不同天气分型条件下以时间序列为因子的日花粉总数量和致敏花粉数量的短期预报模型，编制了日花粉总数量和日致敏花粉数量短期预报的软件操作平台，自动读取分型因子，制作出未来24h北京花粉总数量和日致敏花粉的预报产品。The analysis of daily total pollen number and allergic pollen number in ten years in Beijing shows that the daily pollen number in Beijing in Summer and Autumn displays a slow increase trend before and around the Beginning of Autumn （13th solar term） and quick increase after; the daily total pollen number reaches its peak value around the End of Heat （14th solar term）. Using statistical method, the short-term forecast models of the daily total pollen number and the allergic pollen number for various weather patterns are devised, and the corresponding software operating platform is developed. The 24-hour forecast products of the total pollen number and the diurnal allergic pollen number in Beijing can be made.

关 键 词：预报模型 日花粉总数量 致敏花粉 

分 类 号：S661.2[农业科学—果树学]