论宏观犯罪模型的构建  

On the Construction of Macroscopical Criminal Model

作　　者：段丽华[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁警官高等专科学校公安信息系,辽宁大连116036

出　　处：《辽宁警专学报》2007年第1期45-47,共3页Journal of Liaoning Police Academy

摘　　要：犯罪学发展至今,仍然以定性分析为主,定量研究为辅,主要原因是缺少分析犯罪系统的理论和方法,无法建立犯罪模型。文章首先在M arkov骨架过程的基础上,提出了K-G过程的基本概念并给出相应定理,然后从社会犯罪的实际问题出发,以建立犯罪控制系统为目的,建立了宏观犯罪模型———社会治安稳定性模型,并用K-G过程研究了此模型,给出概率分布。Up to now, criminology is still a descriptive subject. It is mainly the reason that criminal model can not be set up for the scarcity of theory and method of crime system research. In this paper, K - G process is putted forward in the based of Markov Skeleton Process and relevant theory is obtained. And then, thinking of the practical problem of social crime, for the purpose of founding crime control system, macroscopical criminal model -the model of social public security stabilityis established,and studied by K -G process, then probability distribution is obtained.

关 键 词：K—G过程 刑事案件 隐案 概率分布 

分 类 号：D917.6[政治法律—法学]