多维动态关联模型在台风路径、强度和风速同时预报中的应用研究  

RESEARCH AND APPLY MULTIPLE DYNAMIC INTERDEPENDENT MODEL(MDIM)TO PREDICT TYPHOON TRACK, INTENSITY AND WIND-SPEED,SIMULTANEOUSLY

作　　者：吕纯濂[1] 陈舜华[1] 朱永提 

机构地区：[1]南京气象学院,上海市气象局

出　　处：《气象学报》1996年第6期737-744,共8页Acta Meteorologica Sinica

基　　金："八五"国家科技攻关(85-906-05-02-06)项目

摘　　要：从台风个例中采集时序资料，利用关联模型作台风路径、强度和风速的２４ｈ，４８ｈ和７２ｈ预报。在以往工作的基础上，对模型的计算方案作了改进，考虑了内生变量协方差阵的影响。正式提出“多维气象动态关联模型”的新概念，井做了３方面的工作：１．３种时效的回报和预报及其统计分析；２．模拟观测误差产生均匀分布的随机数，作了若干次随机模拟试验，初步讨论了模型的稳定性；３．就台风个例中反映出来的问题，提出了有关本模型的一些待解决的问题和建设性的意见。The Multiple Dynamic Interdependent Model (MDIM) to predict the typhoon track, intensity and wind-speed in 24h. 48h and 72h. respectively were researched and applied. Based on the previous work. the algorithm with considering covariance of endogenous variables was improved. New term 'Multple Meteorological Dynamic Interdependent Model' was formaly named. And three aspects of the work were given : 1. Backward test and prediction in 24h, 48h and 72h and its statistical analysis. 2. Random simulation with adding uniform distributed random number to observation and analysis of its stability. 3. According to the problem of the typhoon in the model, some questions to solve and constructive suggestions to use are raised.

关 键 词：动态关联模型 台风 路径 强度 风速 风预报 

分 类 号：P457.5[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]