用汇率目标区方法评价1995—2004年人民币汇率  

Evaluation of RMB exchange rate from 1995 to 2004 by the exchange rate target zone method

作　　者：杨炘[1] 杨松涛[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学经济管理学院,北京100084

出　　处：《清华大学学报（自然科学版）》2006年第12期2044-2048,共5页Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70173006)

摘　　要：均衡汇率是指一个国家对内、对外同时实现均衡的汇率。研究均衡汇率对国家制定对外经济政策,维持经济稳定具有十分重要的意义。用K rugm an汇率目标区理论建立了人民币均衡汇率汇率目标区模型。选取不同基础经济变量组合建立汇率目标区模型对人民币汇率进行评价。计算结果说明1995—2004年人民币对美元实际汇率对均衡汇率的失调度均小于4%。并用该模型对2005年末人民币均衡汇率进行预测。结果表明目前人民币汇率处于合理水平。The equilibrium currency exchange rate is the rate that occurs when both internal and external economies are in equilibrium. The equilibrium exchange rate is important for external policy formulation and economic stabilization. An equilibrium exchange rate target zone model for China was constrected using Krugman＇s theory to study the impact of various fundamental economic variables on the exchange rate between the RMB and the US dollar. The results show that maladjustments of the exchange rate were all below 4% from 1995 to 2004. The equilibrium exchange RMB rate at the end of 2005 forecast using the model shows that the RMB exchange rate is now at a reasonable level.

关 键 词：均衡汇率 汇率目标区 实际汇率 基础经济变量 

分 类 号：F830.92[经济管理—金融学]