上海市房地产价格变动影响因素实证研究  

Empirical Research on Influencing Factors of Shanghai Real Estate Price Fluctuation

作　　者：姜彩楼[1] 徐康宁[1] 李永浮[2] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学经济管理学院,南京211189 [2]清华大学建筑学院,北京100084

出　　处：《建筑经济》2007年第1期65-68,共4页Construction Economy

摘　　要：运用2003年3月-2006年8月的月度数据,通过协整方法、Granger检验研究了上海市房地产价格变动的影响因素。结果表明:宏观经济发展水平和房地产投资力度是影响上海市房地产价格变动的主要因素,而人均可支配收入、空置面积等反映市场供需关系的指标对房地产价格的影响较小,“房地产新政”对房产价格起到了明显的抑制作用。研究结果说明上海市房地产市场处于“非均衡”状态,为实现房地产业的健康发展,需要对房产价格进行调控。Monthly datum were handled through Co-integrating and Granger causality test to analyze influencing factors on Shanghai real estate price alteration from Feb 2003 to Aug 2006. Results indicated that macroeconomic are main factors pushing up real estate price as well as the ratio of investment in housing to fixed asserts. PDI and vacancy ratio had little influence on the price. But new real estate policies repressed the price greatly. We can conclude that Shanghai real estate market was in non-equilibrium conditions and proper macro-controlling policies were needed to make assure the real estate industry in exuberance.

关 键 词：房地产价格 房地产新政 非均衡市场 上海 

分 类 号：F299.233[经济管理—国民经济]