对外贸易变动对东亚经济周期同步性影响的计量分析  

The Econometric Analysis on the Influence of Trade Fluctuation on the Business Cycle Synchronization in East Asia

作　　者：王悦[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学经济学院

出　　处：《亚太经济》2007年第1期6-11,共6页Asia-Pacific Economic Review

基　　金：国家社科基金重大委托项目资助;是四川大学经济学院李天德教授主持的国家社科基金重大项目<世界经济周期性与非周期性波动与中国经济预警机制建设>(课题编号:05&ZD006)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：随着经济全球化和区域经济一体化进程的不断推进,东亚地区经济周期同步性将进一步加强,本文运用理论和计量分析相结合的方法,不仅验证了东亚地区经济周期同步性的存在,还证明了东亚地区对外贸易变动对该地区经济周期同步性有明显的影响。Since the 1970＇s, business cycles of the economies in east Asian region have shown the nature of synchronization. The main reason of it is the rapid growth of the foreign trade in the region, the more and more close economic linkages with each other, the more and more consistent and harmonious economic and financial policy of each economy in the region and the influence of the cyclical economic fluctuation of the main western developed countries .With the progress of the economic globalization and the regional economic integration, the business cycle synchronization in east Asian region will be enhanced. This article examines the relationship between foreign trade and business cycle synchronization among eight economies of east Asian region, paying particular attention to the validation of the existence of the business cycle synchronization in east Asian region, and proves that the fluctuation of foreign trade in this region has a remarkable impact on the synchronization.

关 键 词：对外贸易 经济周期 同步性 周期性波动 

分 类 号：F125[经济管理—世界经济]