祁连山总云量变化及其与气候变暖的关系  

Study on the Change of Total Cloudage and Its Relationship with Climate Warming over the Qilian Moutains

作　　者：陈少勇[1] 董安祥[1] 陈添宇[1] 安华银[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2007年第1期98-102,共5页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：科技部<西部开发科技行动>"祁连山空中云水资源开发利用研究"(2004BA901A16);"甘肃省人工增雨防雹作业体系工程项目"(人影2001-1-1)共同资助

摘　　要：利用祁连山区及其周边地区34个测站，1961—2000年历年1～12月平均总云量资料，采用线性回归分析、合成分析、相关分析和功率谱分析等方法，分析了40年来祁连山区总云量与气温变化的关系及其成因。结果表明：云量偏少（多）与气温偏高（低）存在一定的对应关系。春、夏季云量对气候变暖的响应显著，秋、冬季不显著；祁连山云量受西太平洋副热带高压、中纬度纬向环流和太阳活动影响。气候变暖引起西太平洋副热带高压面积增大，向北扩展，中纬度纬向环流增强，促使副热带高空锋区北移，冷暖空气在祁连山区交绥次数减少，造成祁连山区云量减少。It is of significance for implementing artificial rainfall and promoting the sustainable economic development to lucubrate the causes resulting in the change of cloudage over the Qilian Mountains. Based on the data of monthly total cloudage observed by 34 meteorological stations in the Qilian Mountains and the peripheral regions （36°03＇-40°53＇N, 93°38＇- 104°05＇E） during the period from 1961 to 2000, in this paper the relationship between the total cloudage over the Qilian Mountains and the variation of air temperature and the causes resuiting in the change of the total cloudage are analyzed using the methods of linear regression analysis, composition analysis, correlation analysis and power spectral analysis. The results show that there are certain corresponding relationships between the change of cloudage over the Qilian Mountains and the variation of air temperature. The response of cloudage to climate warming is significant in spring and summer but not in autumn and winter. Cloudage over the Qilian Mountains is affected by the west-Pacific subtropical high, mid-latitude zonal circulation and solar activity. Climate warming begets the area aggrandizement and northward extension of the west-Pacific subtropical high, enhancement of the mid-latitude zonal circulation, northward shift of the subtropical upper frontal zone, reduction of times of the cold-warm air encounters, and decrease of the total cloudage over the Qilian Mountains.

关 键 词：总云量 气候变暖 线性回归 合成分析 相关分析 祁连山 

分 类 号：P426.5[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]