四川省人均GDP时间序列模型的建立与分析  

Construction and Research on the Model of Time Series of Sichuan per Capita GDP

作　　者：范林榜[1] 祁晓玲[2] 

机构地区：[1]徐州师范大学管理学院,江苏徐州221009 [2]四川师范大学,四川成都610068

出　　处：《西华大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2006年第6期45-46,共2页Journal of Xihua University(Philosophy & Social Sciences)

基　　金：徐州师范大学科研资助项目(编号:06SW615)

摘　　要：多数经济时间序列存在惯性或迟缓性,通过对这种惯性的分析可以研究时间序列的内在规律并预测经济的发展。本文用BOX-Jenkins模型和指数平滑法对四川省人均GDP时间序列进行建模和短期预测分析,结果显示,四川省提出的“十一五”经济增长目标是可以实现的,但应防止新一轮经济增长周期带来的经济增长速度减慢。The study on the phenomena of delay in economic time series can help us to understand its internal laws and forecast the economic development. Based on BOX-Jenkins model and exponential smoothing method, this paper attempts to establish the model of time series of Sichuan per capita GDP and analyze the short-term forecasting, implying that the goal of Sichuan province to realize the economic increase in eleventh five-year plan could be achieved on condition that the slower speed of economic increase will be cautiously handled during the coming economic increase cycle.

关 键 词：四川人均GDP 时间序列 BOX—Jenkins模型 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济]