为什么中国的汇率要钉住美元:基于日元的历史分析  

Why China Should Keep its Exchange Rate Pegged to the Dollar:A Historical Perspective from Japan

作　　者：罗纳德.麦金农 曹红辉[2] 王琛[3] 

机构地区：[1]美国斯坦福大学 [2]中国社会科学院金融研究所 [3]中央财经大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《财贸经济》2007年第1期34-42,共9页Finance & Trade Economics

摘　　要：从1994年到2005年7月21日,中国把其汇率固定在1美元兑换8.28元人民币的水平。此后的人民币汇率机制改革使得人民币汇率在严格控制下开始小幅升值。由于中国的劳动生产率增长相当迅速,贸易盈余持续增长,并积累了大量美元外汇储备。这引发了美国的“排华风潮”,并强烈要求人民币进一步升值。尽管人民币升值并不能降低中国的贸易盈余,但人民币升值的威胁将降低中国的名义利率———1978—1995年的“排日风潮”和日元升值就是如此。日元过度升值引起的通货紧缩,加之零利率的流动性陷阱,造成了20世纪90年代成为日本的“失去的十年”。在新千年里,这同样可能在中国重演。China has fixed its exchange rate at 8.28 Yuan to the dollar from 1994 to July 21,2005,and has only allowed a small,tightly controlled,appreciation since then.China's productivity growth has been very high relative to most other countries,its trade surplus has been rising,and it continues to accumulate large dollar exchange reserves.The result has been “China bashing” with strong American pressure on China to appreciate further.Although appreciation need not reduce China's trade surplus,the threat thereof will reduce nominal interest rates-as happened in the earlier era from 1978 to 1995 of “Japan bashing” and yen appreciation.The resulting deflation from the overvalued yen,coupled with a zero-interest liquidity trap,led to Japan's “lost decade” of the 1990s.It could happen to China in the new millennium.

关 键 词：中国 日本 汇率 通货膨胀 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]