基于广义时空回归的马尾松毛虫空间发生量预报  

Forecast of space occurrence amount of Dendrolimus punctatus based on generalized space regression

作　　者：陈绘画 张建薇 周钦富 

机构地区：[1]浙江省仙居县林业局,浙江仙居317300

出　　处：《中国森林病虫》2007年第1期7-11,共5页Forest Pest and Disease

摘　　要：利用1983年9月至1989年9月马尾松毛虫虫情调查资料,研究全县各调查点的马尾松毛虫有虫面积和虫口密度的时空变化规律,建立1个线性、10个非线性的广义时空回归模型。结果表明:所建立的空间发生量预报模型均具有较好的预报效果,对未参与建模的1989年3代的虫口密度、有虫面积进行预报检验,Gauss模型预报虫口密度的准确率为100%;其他各模型对两者的预报准确率均为66.7%。The pest investigation data of Dendrolimus punctatus from September 1983 to September 1989 was used to study the space change regularity of the infestation area and population density of Dendrolimus punctatus in survey spots in Xianju County and 1 linear and 10 nonlinear generalized space regression models were established. The result showed that all the space occurrence amount forecast models mentioned above had good effect. The forecast examination of the population density and infestation area of 3 generations in 1989 which was not included in the models was made and the result showed the forecast accuracy of population density was 100 % with Gauss Model while the forecast accuracy of both the infestation area and population density was 66.7 % with all the other models.

关 键 词：马尾松毛虫 空间发生量 广义时空回归 

分 类 号：S763.305[农业科学—森林保护学]