石化生产装置安全现状模糊综合评价方法研究  

Study on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method for Safety State of Petrochemical Production Installations

作　　者：李树清[1] 谢正文[2] 王鹏飞[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南科技大学能源与安全工程学院 [2]中国计量学院计量技术工程学院,杭州310018

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2007年第1期121-125,共5页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：湖南省自然科学基金资助(06JJ50079);国家安全生产监督管理总局项目(06-407);湖南省教育厅科研项目(05C174)。

摘　　要：根据石油化工生产装置安全评价存在的模糊性和随机性的特点,在建立涵盖安全管理、工艺过程、作业环境、人员素质、生产设备和安全教育等一级指标的安全现状综合评价指标体系的基础上,运用模糊数学综合评判理论,采用基于信息论中熵概念计算指标权重的方法,提出了安全现状二级模糊综合评价方法。在组织专家对评价指标打分和确定模糊等级的基础上,应用该方法对某顺丁橡胶生产装置安全现状进行了综合评价,得出其安全状况为“较好”;并分析了指标体系中一级指标的状况,为制定安全对策措施提供了指导。该方法对于提高石油化工生产装置安全现状综合评价的客观性和准确性具有理论意义和实用价值。In view of the existing fuzziness and randomness in the safety comprehensive evaluation for petrochemical production installations, an index system for the comprehensive evaluation of safety state, which comprises the first-class indices such as safety management, process, work environment, staff quality, production equipment, safety education, was put forward, and then a two-stage fuzzy assessment model for the evaluation of safety state of petrochemical production installations was established by applying the theory of fuzzy mathematics. In this model, the concept of entropy in information theory was also used so as to obtain the objective weight of each index and avoid subjective effect. On the basis of the scores and fuzzy grades of each evaluation index given by experts, a safety state comprehensive evaluation on the production installation of the Cisl ,4 Polybutadiene Rubber was carried out through applying this model, result shows the safety state for this installation is ＂the better＂. Finally, safety state of all first-class indices was analyzed so as to provide guidance for constituting safety countermeasures and safeguards. This method is of great theoretic significance and practical use in improving the objectivity and accurateness of the safety state evaluation for petrochemical production installations.

关 键 词：石油化工生产装置 安全状况 模糊综合评价 熵技术 安全评价 

分 类 号：X913[环境科学与工程—安全科学]