基于ARMA模型的往复式压缩机状态预测  

Study of Reciprocating Compressor Condition Forecasting Based on ARMA Model

作　　者：杨素春[1] 王朝晖[1] 于晓红[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(北京)机电学院,北京102249

出　　处：《石油化工设备》2007年第1期1-4,共4页Petro-Chemical Equipment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50105015;50375103);北京市科技新星计划资助项目(2003B33);北京市教育委员会共建项目建设计划(XK114140478);教育部霍英东青年教师教育基金(No.91051)

摘　　要：论述了ARMA模型的构造及运用模型解决问题的方法,介绍了模型的建立过程,并将其应用到往复压缩机状态预测体系中,得到了预测值与实际值的拟合图。结果表明,应用ARMA模型法预测往复式压缩机的运行状态是可信的和准确的,预测机械故障是可行的。Structure and method settling question ot ARMA model are studied, procedure of ARMA model is discussed. According to material item, ARMA model is applied to analyze trend forecasting of reciprocating compressor running condition. The model is testified by experimental data, trend figure of forecasting numerical value and fact value is gained,and results proves to be reliable and accuracy,revealing feasibility of forecasting fault by ARMA model.

关 键 词：压缩机 状态 预测 ARMA模型 

分 类 号：TE964[石油与天然气工程—石油机械设备] O212.1[理学—概率论与数理统计]