基于累积前景理论的有限理性威慑模型  

The Model of Bounded Rational Deterrence Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory

作　　者：向钢华[1] 王永县[2] 

机构地区：[1]第二炮兵指挥学院,湖北武汉430012 [2]清华大学经济管理学院,北京100084

出　　处：《系统工程》2006年第12期107-110,共4页Systems Engineering

摘　　要：将累积前景理论与两阶段动态威慑模型相结合,研究了基于累积前景理论的有限理性威慑模型与基于期望效用理论的理性威慑模型之间的差异,指出这些差异是构成威慑博弈中挑战者行为被误判的重要原因。In this paper cumulative prospect theory is applied to a two-stage dynamic deterrence model. The differences between the model of bounded rational deterrence based on cumulative prospect theory and the model of rational deterrence based on expected utility theory are compared,and the important misception reasons for the challenger＇s behavior underlying these differences are pointed out.

关 键 词：威慑 累积前景理论 期望效用 价值函数 决策权重 

分 类 号：E81[军事—战略学]