余弦模型的非线性回归拟合法（NLR）计算传染病高峰月日的探讨  

A NLR-METHOD OF FITTING COSINE MODEL AND ITS PEAK-DAY ESTIMATE FOR THE INCIDENCE OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES

作　　者：潘宝骏[1] 李方明[1] 阙少聪[1] 游明基[1] 

机构地区：[1]福建省卫生防疫站

出　　处：《疾病监测》1996年第12期464-468,共5页Disease Surveillance

摘　　要：本文对《疾病监测》１９９６：（６）：２２８的数据，进行两种方法（圆分布法与余弦模型法）的再分析；重点介绍以ＳＰＳＳ／ＰＣ＋软件包的ＮＬＲ命令拟合余弦模型的简便方法；说明两法等价的原理与条件，并与原作者商榷。The data from 'DISEASE SURVEILLANCE'1996;11(6):228 were re-analyzed by the authors in this paper.The cosine (COS)model and circular distribution(CD)model were used for fitting the equations and estimating the peakday.The former method could also obtained the expected values.Because the two models were not so easy to be fitted,a simple procedure of NLR-method from SPSS/PC+4.0 package was written by the authors to calculate the needed parameters,the peakday and the expected values of COS-mode;A better equation of COS-model which was equivalent to CD-model was suggested.

关 键 词：传染病 高峰日 余弦模型 非线性回归 拟合法 

分 类 号：R183[医药卫生—流行病学]