加入预期因素的多重均衡模型:市场结构与权力结构——国际市场油价波动的政治经济学分析  

A Multiple Equilibrium Model with Anticipation:Market Structure and Power Structure——The Political Economy of International Oil Price Fluctuations

作　　者：管清友[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院研究生院

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2007年第1期69-74,共6页World Economics and Politics

摘　　要：作者通过改进后的多重均衡模型讨论权力与市场两个因素的关系,并对油价波动的原因做出解释。国际市场是权力主导下的规则体系。油价波动既是国际市场供求双方博弈的结果,也是大国关于石油利益分配的政治安排。油价波动反映了国际市场的供求结构,也反映了国际关系的权力结构。权力介入市场进一步放大了供求双方的矛盾,扩大了石油“风险溢价”的区间,甚至引发石油危机和能源恐慌。预期因素是市场结构和权力结构的反映。权力结构决定了市场结构。由于权力的介入,国际市场存在着超额需求和投机需求,从而使油价波动偏离正常的供求关系,波动周期也大大延长。The author attempts to use an improved Multiple Equilibrium Model to explore the relations between power structures and the market and the reasons for international oil price fluctuations. The international market is a power-dominated system of rules. The fluctuation in oil prices is not only the result of supply and demand, but also the result of the political arrangements of the oil interests among the big powers. It reflects both the demand and supply structure of the international market and the power structure of international relations. The intervemtopm of power into the markets accele￣rates the conflicts between supply and demand, enlarges the “risk premium” of oil prices, and may even lead to an oil crisis or an energy panic. The factor of anticipation can reflect the market and power structures of the international oil market. The market structure is decided by the power structure. Due to the power interventions, there are excess and speculative demands on the international markets, which cause the oil price fluctuation to deviate from normal supply and demand relations and result in a prolongation of the cycle of oil price fluctuations.

关 键 词：政治经济学 多重均衡模型 预期 市场结构 权力结构 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济]