西北区冰雹日气候分析及预测方法研究  

Climatic Analysis and Forecasting Method of Hail in Northwest China

作　　者：赵红岩[1] 杨瑜峰[1] 赵庆云[1] 汤懋苍[2] 康凤琴[1] 白彦芳 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局兰州干旱研究所甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室 [2]中国科学院寒区旱区环境工程研究所,甘肃兰州730000 [3]青海气候中心,青海西宁810001

出　　处：《地球科学进展》2007年第2期136-142,共7页Advances in Earth Science

基　　金：科技部2002年社会公益研究项目"西北区人工防雹技术"(编号:2002DIB10046);中国科技部科研院所社会公益研究项目"中国干旱气象灾害监测预警方法研究"(编号:2004DIBDIB5J192)共同资助

摘　　要：利用1970—2001年1-12月中国西北区冰雹日数的气象实测资料,将年冰雹日数发生的变化趋势看作每年的一个气候现象,分析其发生的气候变化趋势、年代际变化以及与大气环流的相关关系,得出多雹年北半球500 hPa极涡强、位置偏东,副热带高压面积小、强度弱、位置偏南,乌拉尔山至巴尔喀什湖高度场为正距平,雅库次克至贝加尔湖高度场为负距平。少雹年北半球500 hPa极涡弱、位置偏西,副热带高压面积大、强度强、位置偏北,乌拉尔山至巴尔喀什湖高度场为负距平,雅库次克至贝加尔湖高度场为正距平区。从而找出冰雹气候趋势预测的着眼点,建立冰雹短期气候预测概念模型;此模型对冰雹发生变化趋势的预测具有一定的实用价值。Based on the daily recorded date of annual hail from 1970 to 2001 and 500 hPa northern hemisphere, correlative analyses showed that annual hail days climate during summer in Northwest China at some extent had relation with winter circulation field and pole region circulation, westerly circulation and subtropical anticyclone. The contrast analysis showed that polar vortex was lower in 500 hPa northern hemisphere in hail-more years, positive anomaly from mountain Ural to Baikash lake, but negative anomaly from Yakutsk to Baikal lake, However, the conditions in hail-less periods and years were just adverse. A conceptual model for forecasting hail phenomena of the study region has been put forward. Results judged by the conceptual model are accordant to the results of multivariate regression analysis. It has proved by the application that the conceptual model has considerable forecasting ability.

关 键 词：西北区 冰雹气候变化 预测概念模型 

分 类 号：P458.121.2[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]