汾河流域降水变化趋势的气候分析  

Climatic analysis of precipitation change trend over the Fenhe river basin

作　　者：赵学敏[1] 胡彩虹[1] 张丽娟[2] 赵春娜 

机构地区：[1]郑州大学环境与水利学院,河南郑州450002 [2]华北电力大学计算机系,北京102206 [3]河南省长葛市县乡公路管理站,河南长葛461500

出　　处：《干旱区地理》2007年第1期53-59,共7页Arid Land Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(40572150);山西省气象开放基金(SX042003)资助

摘　　要：利用汾河流域39个测站近45 a(1956-2000年)的月降水量资料,采用线性趋势估计、T显著性检验和多项式回归方法分析了降水时空变化。结果表明,汾河流域降水空间分布南多北少、由下游向上游逐渐减少。年、汛期(6～9月)降水量呈逐年减少趋势,且在全流域具有普遍性,平均降水倾向系数-26．1 mm/10 a、-22．2 mm/10 a,流域趋于干旱化。20世纪50、60年代流域降水偏多,70、80年代接近常年水平,90年代偏少最甚。气候跃变参数结果显示,汾河流域汛期降水没有跃变。The Fenhe River basin, located in the Loess Plateau in north China, has area of 3.94 × 10^4 km^2 and is a main base of industrial and agricultural production in Shanxi province. As same as the Loess Plateau, the ecological environment of the Fenhe River basin is extreme fragile and the precipitation is the main source of regional water resources. However, the precipitation in north China has reduced since the mid-1960s, which has resulted in the more serious scarce of water resources and restricted the regional economic sustainable development. In addition, reducing tendency of precipitation is very disadvantageous to agriculture and ecological environment in the Fenhe River basin. In this paper, by using the linear regression, T significance test and 5 power polynomial function method, the spatio-temporal distributing variation of precipitation in the Fenhe River basin both in flood season （June to September） and year are analyzed with the observed data of mensal rainfall at 39 stations from 1956 to 2000. The results show that the mean precipitation in south is more than north and reduces from lower reach to upriver. The long-term decline tendency of precipitation was found in most part of the Fenhe River basin during the last 45 years and the trends were - 26.1 mm per decade and - 22.2 mm per decade, so the drought tendency over the basin is obvious. In the 1950s and the 1960s, precipitation was abundant and was near to the mean value from the 1970s to the 1980s, but the precipitation anomaly had been obviously negative in the 1990s. In the end, saltation was analyzed by using the climatic saltation parameter, it is not found that an obvious jump of precipitation in flood season occurs, which is different to the analysis result of precipitation in north China.

关 键 词：汾河流域 降水趋势 时空分布 干旱化 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]