产业结构生态预警研究——以甘肃省为例  

Ecological forewarning of industrial structure——A case of Gansu Province

作　　者：赵雪雁[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《干旱区地理》2007年第1期128-134,共7页Arid Land Geography

基　　金：国家社会科学基金西部项目(06XMZ028);霍英东教育基金会高等院校青年教师基金(91086);甘肃省社科规划重点项目;甘肃省教育厅项目资助

摘　　要：区域产业的发展及其组合类型、强度的变化都将对生态环境产生强烈的胁迫。有关经济、环境预警的基本方法引入产业结构生态预警研究中,建立了产业结构生态预警的指标体系及预警模型,并以甘肃省为例进行了产业结构生态效应的景气预警和景兆预警评价。研究发现,1996- 2004年间,有2/3年份的产业结构生态效应处于巨警状态;2005-2009年间,所有年份的产业结构生态效应都处于重警状态。The industry developing and changing of the industrial structure and intension will affect eco-environment intensely. The paper applies economics and environment methods to forewarning the eco-environment influence of industrial structure, founds the index system that includes the resource using efficiency, eco-environment pollution and destruction, environment protecting and harnessing, society and economic, etc. And the paper builds up the forewarning model of ecological forewarning of industrial structure, establishes the indexg estimation criterion, and divides the alert level of industrial structure ecological forewarning. Moreover, the paper evaluates the prosperity ecological forewarning and omen ecological forewarning in Gansu. In order to calculate the alert level of the indexes in Gansu, the paper firstly disposes the normal alert indexes in accordance with the value of the alert indexes in 1995 to be the criterion value and the value of the alert indexes in 2010 to be target value in Gansu, then evaluate the prosperity ecological forewarning and omen ecological forewarning. The results are as follows ： （ 1 ） in course of 1996 and 2004 ,the alert level of the prosperity ecological forewarning of industrial structure goes over 3. 0 and the eco-environment benefit is at tremendous alert level in about 2/3 years, showing the double-red light, more than the 50% alert indexes are at serious alert level in mostly years; （2） in course of 2005 and 2009, the alert level of the omen ecological forewarning of industrial structure is under 2.5 and the eco-environment benefit is at serious alert level every year, more than the 50% alert indexes are at middle alert level, showing the yellow light. The results show the pressure of the industrial structure to the eco-environment is serious; the serf-adjusting capacity of the eco-environment in Gansu is very low. It is necessary to found a sustainable industrial development policy to promote the industrial transformation.

关 键 词：产业结构 生态预警 甘肃 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]