降水空间特征与泥石流沟分布的关系  

Relationship between the spatial characteristics of precipitation and distribution of debris flow ravines.

作　　者：高克昌[1] 韦方强[1] 崔鹏[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所

出　　处：《北京林业大学学报》2007年第1期85-89,共5页Journal of Beijing Forestry University

基　　金：中国科学院知识创新工程项目(KZCX3--SW--352);中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所创新前沿项目(C3200307);国家气象中心预报系统实验室开放基金项目

摘　　要：根据1990—2001年四川省和云南省降雨量、降雨日数等资料,分析了川、滇两地泥石流沟与年降雨量、雨季日均降水、降雨变率等空间分布特征的关系.结果表明,不同地域雨季日均降水量具有相对稳定性,而其变率与泥石流沟空间分布的数量具有明显的相关关系,相关系数高达0.864.该文提出可以进一步考虑利用雨季日均降水特性建立以雨季日均降水量为参照标准的区域泥石流临界雨量模型.The historical rainfall records of Sichuan and Yunnan provinces during 1990-2001 were used to analyze the mean annual precipitation （MAP）, the daily mean precipitation of rainy season （DMPRS） and DMPRS＇ s variability, and then analyze the relationship between above indices and the distribution of debris flow ravines further, aiming at probing into the relationship between precipitation variance and debris flow ravine distribution in Sichuan and Yunnan provinces. The results show that although DMPRS has small fluctuation, it has relative stability in different regions. Furthermore, the fluctuation magnitude of it has close relationship with the distribution of debris flow ravines, and the correlation coefficient is as high as 0. 864. These results show that the DMPRS can be considered as a criterion to develope new rainfall threshold model for debris flow forecasting.

关 键 词：降水变率 雨季日均降水量 泥石流 临界雨量 

分 类 号：S715.3[农业科学—林学] S714.7