湖南气候变化对农作物生产潜力的响应  

Responses of crops productive potential to climatic change in Hunan Province

作　　者：陆魁东[1] 屈右铭[1] 张超[1] 王勃[2] 汤宇 

机构地区：[1]湖南省气象科学研究所,湖南长沙410007 [2]湖南省信息工程学校,湖南长沙410125 [3]湖南省气象局后勤服务中心,湖南长沙410007

出　　处：《湖南农业大学学报（自然科学版）》2007年第1期9-13,共5页Journal of Hunan Agricultural University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：中国气象局项目

摘　　要：根据1961-2004年湖南省96个气象站的历史资料,分析了近44年温、光、水的年际变化特征,利用作物生产潜力模式,计算了湖南农作物光合潜力、光温潜力与气候生产潜力,探讨了农作物生产潜力的时空变化规律.结果表明,湖南省年平均气温每10年上升0.1℃,年日照时数自20世纪80年代初下降了173.2 h,年降水量存在2个明显的多水期和少雨期.光能潜力和光温潜力呈东高西低的分布态势,气候生产潜力,湘西和衡邵盆地为低值区,湘北和湘南为高值区.光能潜力、光温潜力44年分别下降了7 629.6,4 739.7 kg/hm2,气候生产潜力变化趋势不明显.According to the meteorological data from 1961 to 2004 in Hunan Province, the characteristic of temperature, light and water was analyzed. The photosynthetic, photosynthesis-temperature potential productivity and the potential productivity of agro-climatic were calculated by Crops Productive Potential Model, followed by a probe into the disciplinarian of the spatial-temporal variability of crops productive potential. The average annual temperature in Hunan has risen by 0.42 ~C over the past 44 years, And it began to go down by 173.2 h in the early 1980＇s. There are two periods of abundant rainfall and two periods lack of rainfall. The photosynthetic and photosynthesis-temperature potential productivity reflect a high distribution rate in the east and a low on the west. The potential productivity of agro-climatic is lower in west area of Hunan Province and Hengshao Basin; the higher is in north and south area of Hunan Province. The photosynthetic and photosynthesis-temperature potential productivity have reduced 7 629.6 kg/hm^2, 4 739.7 kg/hm^2 during the past 44 years, respectively. The potential productivity of agro-climatic trend is not distinctive.

关 键 词：气候变化 生产潜力 响应 模型 地理信息系统 农作物 湖南 

分 类 号：S161[农业科学—农业气象学]