小子样不可修武器装备的Bayes可靠性增长分析  

Bayes Reliability Growth Analysis for Non-repairable Arm Equipment with Small Samples

作　　者：程皖民[1] 冯静[1] 周经伦[1] 孙权[1] 

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学信息系统与管理学院系统工程系,长沙410073

出　　处：《电讯技术》2007年第1期13-16,共4页Telecommunication Engineering

基　　金：国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)项目(2003AA845023)

摘　　要：现有的可靠性增长模型大多是针对可修系统建立的,而现实中大多存在的是不可修产品,即产品投入可靠性增长试验出现故障后,很难修复如新再次投入试验。针对武器装备小子样、不可修的特点,提出了Bayes可靠性增长分析方法。首先利用多台产品异步增长理论得到各阶段试验数据的似然函数,然后构造了增长模型参数的Gamma-均匀验前分布并给出了模型参数估计的ML-II方法,通过Bayes统计推断对装备研制全过程的可靠性增长规律进行分析,最后通过仿真示例说明了该方法在工程上的应用。The existing reliability growth models are mostly set up for repairable systems, otherwise, most arm equipment are non -repairable products, that is, if the products failed in tests, they can not be repaired to test again. A new Bayes reliability growth model is proposed for the non - repaired arm equipment with small samples. Firstly, the likelihood function of test data is obtained through asynchronous growth theory. Then Gamma - uniform prior is constructed whose parameters are estimated through the second maximum likelihood method. The reliability growth law for the arm equipment is concluded by Bayes methods. Finally, an example is given to illustrate the efficiency of the method.

关 键 词：小子样不可修产品 可靠性增长 BAYES方法 Gamma-均匀分布 第二类极大似然估计 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]