1990～2004年中外男子竞走项目发展态势及2008年成绩预测研究  

A Study on the Development of Men's Walking Events both in and out of China from 1990 to 2004 and Forecast the Performance in 2008

作　　者：陈亮[1] 孙晋海[1] 

机构地区：[1]曲阜师范大学体育科学学院,山东曲阜273165

出　　处：《广州体育学院学报》2007年第1期11-14,25,共5页Journal of Guangzhou Sport University

摘　　要：通过灰色3数据建模法，对2005～2008年新奥运周期我国男子20km和50km竞走各年份的第一名成绩，前三名、前八名平均成绩分别进行预测。同时，利用灰色马尔柯夫预测模型对2008年奥运会成绩进行预测，结果显示：男子20km已具备冲击金牌的实力，只是不具备团队作战的可能；男子50km虽具备团队作战的可能，却很难冲击金牌。建议：合理的调整周期训练方案，充分利用东道主的有利时机，取得更好的成绩。Through the method of three data modeling, the author analyzes the Chinese men＇s 20km and 50km waking events in 2005 to 2008 new Olympic periods, and forecast performance of the top, and the average score of top three and top every year. Then forecast the performance in 2008 Olympic Game by using gray Markov model. The results show that the men＇s 20km has strength to get the gold model, but it still lack of team work. However, it is difficult to win the gold medal in men＇s 50km, although they have the ability of team work. The author suggests that we should adjust the training plan rationally and make good use of the chance to be the host of 2008 Olympic Game so as to achieve much better results.

关 键 词：男子竞走 成绩 预测 三数据建模 灰色马尔柯夫模型 

分 类 号：G821[文化科学—体育训练]