能源冲击对中国宏观经济的影响  

EFFECTS OF ENERGY SHOCK ON CHINESE MACRO-ECONOMY

作　　者：孙稳存[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学经济学院,北京100872

出　　处：《经济理论与经济管理》2007年第2期31-36,共6页Economic Theory and Business Management

摘　　要：能源是影响中国经济波动的一个重要因素,在目前中国所实行的宏观经济政策目标下,中国能源总体价格上升10%,当年的通货膨胀率上升大约0.29%,最终导致的总体价格水平上升0.35%,而产出缺口在当年为0.34%,最终造成的产出损失累计为0.41%;国际石油价格上升100%将导致中国物价出现温和上升以及产出出现小幅下降,但二者均不会超过1%。Energy source is one of the very important factors for Chinese economic fluctuation. Under the current macroeconomic policy goals, Chinese energy price goes up by 10%, and this leads to about 0.29% of inflation rate, 0.35% up of general price level, 0.34% of output gap and accumulatively 0.41% loss of output. Meantime, 100% up of world oil price will result in Chinese mild increase of price level and mild decrease of output, both by less than 1%.

关 键 词：能源冲击 通货膨胀 产出波动 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F426.2F224