基于多智能体的短期电价智能预测方法  

Short-term Electricity Price Intelligent Forecasting Model Based on Multi-agent

作　　者：姜巍[1,2] 王富忠[1] 沈祖志[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学管理学院 [2]浙江省电力调度通信中心,浙江省杭州市310007

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2007年第4期37-40,90,共5页Automation of Electric Power Systems

摘　　要：短期电价预测的准确性和稳定性对电力竞价决策具有重要作用。针对目前短期电价预测方法的局限性,提出并建立了一种基于多智能体的智能化短期电价预测方法。按照智能预测和组合预测的思想,实现了各类预测模型的智能选择、定量与定性方法的有机整合,并重点研究了知识库的构建及基于多智能体的预测流程。仿真试验结果表明,与常规预测方法相比,该方法的准确性和稳定性均得到了提高。The accuracy and stability of the short-term electricity price forecasting is very important for electricity bidding decisions. Aimed at disadvantages of the normal short-term electricity price forecasting methods, an intelligent forecasting method based on multi-agent is proposed, in which the intelligent model selection as well as the combination of quantitative and qualitative forecasting results given by different models are implemented based on the idea of intelligent forecast and combining forecast. The construction of knowledge base and the forecasting flow based on multi-agent are emphasized. Simulation results show that the intelligent model provides better accuracy and stability compared with normal models.

关 键 词：电价预测 多智能体 智能预测 电力市场 

分 类 号：F407.61[经济管理—产业经济]