用离散仿真预测中国从2004年到2030年的人均保险费(英文)  

Forecasts China’s Insurance Premium per Head from 2004 to 2030 by Scatter Simulation Based on Modern Manufacturing Going Out

作　　者：曾诗鸿[1] 李双杰[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学经济管理学院,北京100022

出　　处：《系统仿真学报》2007年第3期695-697,701,共4页Journal of System Simulation

基　　金：Foundation item: Partly from important discipline: management science and engineering in Research Foundation of Beijing University of Technology (ER2005-B-141);from Research Foundation of Nature Science and Education Committee in Beijing (SZ200510005001;9052002);National Social Science Foundation of China (03BJL044 and 04BJY061).

摘　　要：通过建立中国的人均保险费模型,中国的人均保险费是中国的人均GDP和市场经济的深度的函数,使用离散仿真软件Eviews发现:中国的人均保险费将从2003年的36.2美元增加到2020年的369.5美元,到2030年将达到918美元,所以中国的保险业将以很高的增长率发展。By setting up a model of China＇s insurance premium per head, China＇s insurance premium per head is the function of China＇s GDP per head and the degree of market economy. Then it is forecasted by scatter simulation that China＇s insurance premium per head will be 369.5 US dollar at the year 2020 more than the value of B （China ＇s insurance premium per head is 36.2 US dollar） at the year 2003. At the year 2030, the forecast value of China＇s insurance premium per head will be 918 US dollar. The instrument of forecast for scatter simulation is Eviews, therefore, the China＇s insurance industry will develop by a high growth rate.

关 键 词：人均保险费 人均GD 市场经济的深度 中国 离散仿真 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]