某型晶闸管恒加寿命试验中数据处理的Bayes方法  

Bayesian Data Process of Constant Stress Accelerated Life Test for Transistor Switch

作　　者：严拴航[1,2] 师义民[1] 田艳芳[1] 孙伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北工业大学,西安710072 [2]中国第一飞机设计研究院,西安710089

出　　处：《航天控制》2007年第1期75-79,共5页Aerospace Control

摘　　要：对寿命服从Weibull分布的某型晶闸管恒定应力加速寿命试验中的零失效数据,运用经典的统计方法和Bayes方法进行了处理,分别给出了在正常应力下失效概率的极大似然估计和多层Bayes估计,对2种估计结果与现场试验数据下所得估计结果的比较表明,Bayes估计的绝对误差为5.89×10-5,它小于极大似然估计的绝对误差2.438×10-3。随机模拟表明本文所给方法正确有效。t Upon the condition of constant stress accelerated life testing, zero-failure data with the Weibull distribution of certain type transistor switch is studied. Firstly, the zero-data is processed by using Bayes and classical statistical methods. Bayes estimation （BE） and maximum likelilood estimation （MLE） of failure probability under normal stress are given . Meanwhile, MLE and BE results are also compared with current expriment results,whieh shows that the absolute error of BE is 5.89×10^- ,and it is less than the absolute error of MLE which is 2. 438 ×10^-3. Finally, random simulation shows the given method is right and feasible.

关 键 词：恒应力加速寿命试验 失效概率 极大似然方法 BAYES方法 

分 类 号：O213.2[理学—概率论与数理统计]