平原水库供水水源系统可靠性及风险分析方法  

Risk Analysis of Water Supply Source System and Simulation Method in Plain Reservoir

作　　者：谷秀英[1] 曲兴辉 王立强[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁省水利水电勘测设计研究院,辽宁沈阳110006 [2]辽宁省石佛寺水库工程建设管理局,辽宁沈阳110129

出　　处：《水文》2007年第1期26-29,共4页Journal of China Hydrology

摘　　要：本文通过建立模糊带权马尔柯夫链模型,预测径流量未来的丰枯变化情况,评价运行期供水水源系统的可靠性。以供水工程承担的供水外来负荷大于工程本身的承载能力的概率定义了平原水库供水水源系统的风险,阐述了供水水源系统风险分析及模拟方法。This paper introduced how to forecast the variation of runoff in the future and estimate the reliability of the water supply source system in operational period, by using the weighted and fuzzy Markov＇s Chain Model. The author defined the risk of water supply in plain reservoir through the probability if the water demand is bigger than project＇s carrying capacity, and elaborated the risk analysis of water supply source system and the simulation method.

关 键 词：平原水库 供水水源 可靠性 风险分析 

分 类 号：TV62[水利工程—水利水电工程] P333.1[天文地球—水文科学]