中国省域旅游业发展潜力的比较研究  

A COMPARISON STUDY ON THE DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL OF TRANSPROVINCIAL TOURISM INDUSTRY IN CHINA

作　　者：曹新向[1] 

机构地区：[1]河南大学历史文化学院黄河文明与可持续发展研究中心,开封475001

出　　处：《人文地理》2007年第1期18-22,共5页Human Geography

基　　金：教育部人文社科基地项目(2004601044);河南大学校内基金(04YBRW019)

摘　　要：对区域旅游产业发展潜力的测评,可以反映区域旅游产业发展的后续能力和未来前景。通过构建区域旅游产业发展潜力评价指标体系,运用因子分析法,借助SPSS统计分析软件,从旅游业产业发展角度出发,对我国31个省、市、自治区旅游业发展潜力的差异进行了量化研究。研究表明,我国东部大部分省域具有较强的旅游产业发展潜力,中部大部分省份旅游产业发展潜力居中,而西部大多省份的旅游产业发展潜力较弱,这与我国经济发展的差异基本上相似。同时,研究也发现,旅游发展潜力的强弱分布基本上与旅游竞争力的强弱分布是一致的。The development potential of tourism industry is a reflection of future development ability and intending foreground. Moreover, the study on the development potential of tourism industry also reflects the competition. Based on Delphi method and expert ideas, the paper constructs the evaluation index system. It includes 58 indexes which could be divided into groups： demand potential system, supply potential system, potential safeguard power and potential support power. With the help of SPSS 10.0, the development potential of tourism industry of 31 provinces in China is analyzed. The result shows that there is a stronger potential in the East China and a weaker one in the West. It is also revealed that the development potential of tourism industry in every province is correlative with the competition power.

关 键 词：发展潜力 旅游业 中国 因子分析法 

分 类 号：F592[经济管理—旅游管理]